Golf’s second major tournament of the year isn’t played too far from Augusta National Golf Club. Kiawah Island’s Ocean Course, about an hour south of Charleston, S.C., is the site of the 2021 PGA Championship, which will draw 156 of the world’s best golfers.
The course is a whopping 7,876 yards, the longest in major championship history. It might not play that exact length depending on where the tee boxes are, but this is still a tough test for even the PGA Tour’s longest hitters.
MORE: Hideki Matsuyama Outlasts the Rest to Win the Masters
The last time the PGA Championship was played at Kiawah was 2012, when Rory McIlroy bested the field by eight strokes. The Northern Irishman finally got the monkey off his back two weeks ago at the Wells Fargo Championship for his first win since 2015, and he’s emerged as the betting favorite (11-1 at FanDuel Sportsbook) this week as a result.
Jon Rahm (15-1), Justin Thomas (16-1), Dustin Johnson (18-1), Jordan Spieth (18-1), and Bryson DeChambeau (19-1) are next on the board, followed by perennial contender Xander Schauffele (20-1) and young gun Viktor Hovland (22-1).
The middle of the board is chock full of major winners, most recent of which being Hideki Matsuyama (30-1), fresh off his Masters victory, and Patrick Reed (33-1), Masters winner in his own right and winner earlier this year at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in San Diego, Calif.
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It will take distance and accuracy off the tee to compete this year, and major championships always demand at least some semblance of short game expertise, whether that’s with the approach shots or on the putting green. Players with an all-around solid skill set will have to bring ceiling performances to win on a tough track, and ocean winds in the forecast will bring even more uncertainty into the mix.
Staff Picks:
Daniel Berger (30-1 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Last year’s PGA Championship saw Collin Morikawa grow into a household name. I think the same can be true for Daniel Berger this week. In 2021, Berger’s results are as follows: 10th, 7th, CUT, first (Pebble Beach), 35th, ninth, CUT, 12th, third.
If the Floridian has made the cut this year, he’s almost always worked his way into contention. His most recent win came at another coastal track in Pebble Beach, and he’s got both the all-around game and the recent form to push him over the hump and become a major champion.
Cameron Smith (42-1 at Fanduel Sportsbook)
Smith finished T2 and T10 in the last two Masters, and he’s got results of fourth, 11th, 17th, 10th and ninth in his last five starts. He excels in tough conditions with strong fields, both of which will be on tap in Kiawah this weekend. He’s not the longest or most accurate off the tee, but his short game is creative enough to help bail him out of difficult spots, a bonafide weapon in forecasted windy conditions.
Charl Schwartzel (100-1 at Fanduel Sportsbook)
The South African is on a heater as of late, finishing 26th, 21st, 14th, and third in his last four starts. His approach game has been world-class and a bit better luck with the putter last week at the AT&T Byron Nelson might have secured his first PGA Tour win since the 2016 Valspar Championship. This event is the best shot the 36-year-old has had at a major title since his Masters win in 2011.
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Guest Picks:
– Stephen Hennessey, Deputy Managing Editor at GolfDigest.com –
Dustin Johnson (18-1 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
If we’re getting a healthy Dustin Johnson, this number has value. The implied winning odds at 18-1 are about 5.25 percent, and I believe that number should be around 7 percent if DJ is healthy. It’s a question mark, but I liked the improved ball-striking stats we’ve seen from DJ in his past two starts. He’s in his home state of South Carolina, and I think it will mean a lot to him to win here.
Jordan Spieth (18-1 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
It has been a resurgent 2021 for Spieth, with six top-10s and a win. How he’s compiling those results is most impressive — he’s gaining more than two strokes per round on the field, which is by far the best of anyone else on the PGA Tour. And it’s been mostly ball-striking. That’s critical to success at Kiawah. Plus, if he misses greens, he has one of the best short games in the world. Most importantly, it’s the creativity Spieth possesses — which you can’t find in any stat metric — but will help him navigate this Pete Dye strategic jungle gym. Spieth has a great chance of winning the career Grand Slam this week.
– Brandon Gdula, Managing Editor at NumberFire.com –
Dustin Johnson (17-1 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Johnson’s recent withdrawal is a touch concerning. He cited knee discomfort as the reason for the W/D, but other than that, everything shapes up perfectly for DJ. He played the 2012 PGA Championship here and has cited Kiawah’s Ocean Course as one of his favorites in his home state of South Carolina. He thrives off the tee, at Carolina courses, and on Pete Dye-designed courses.
MORE: One of the World’s Best Golfers Learns a New Way to Play
Matthew Fitzpatrick (80-1 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Fitzpatrick’s recent form is understated. He ranks fourth in adjusted strokes gained average over the past three months, according to my database. He’s not long off the tee but still gains strokes there, which is vital. He also ranks top-30 in strokes gained on difficult courses (16th), Dye courses (27th), and Carolina courses (26th) over the past 50 rounds on Tour, according to FantasyNational.com
Tyler Strong is the Business Editor for The Augusta Press. Reach him at tyler@theaugustapress.com.
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