The golfing world has never been flush with as much young talent — the sport’s top five by Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) are all under the age of 30 for the first time since the ranking began in 1986. And yet, the casual golf fan may not recognize some of those top players. Whether the names are familiar or not, they’re important names to know as eight of the last 10 Masters winners were ranked in the world’s top 20 while the other two were 24th (Patrick Reed) and 25th (Hideki Matsuyama).
Below, a case for each of the world’s top 10.
1. Scottie Scheffler – Most recent Masters result: 18 (2021)
This 25-year-old Texan has experienced a meteoric rise to the top of the world ranking. Just 43 days ago, he had zero PGA Tour wins but numerous close calls in strong field events. He clinched his first victory at the Waste Management Phoenix Open in February and followed it up with a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March. He climbed to world number one with a win at the WGC Match Play event two weeks ago with a win over Aiken native Kevin Kisner.
They say all it takes is one win to open the floodgates sometimes, and three wins in five starts for Scheffler is about as floodgate-y as it gets. With more wins in the last two months than some top golfers have in five years, it feels foolish to count Scheffler out at Augusta this week.
2. Jon Rahm – Most recent Masters result: 5 (2021)
The man ousted by Scheffler, Jon Rahm captured his first major win at the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. He actually finished in the top eight of all four majors last year, a testament to his ability to bring his best stuff when the lights shine brightest. A consistent performer throughout the golf bag, the Spaniard has been in a “slump” so far in 2022 by Jon Rahm standards.
He’s made the cut at all seven events he’s played in 2022, and finished 21st or better in six of them. Even still, people always expect a world number one to consistently hoist trophies. Golf fans were spoiled by Tiger Woods’ prolificity, if you ask me. Rahm is as dangerous as come at Augusta National, where he’s finished ninth or better each of the last four years. Leave him out as your own risk.
3. Collin Morikawa – Most recent Masters result: 18 (2021)
One of the game’s most precocious stars, this California kid won his first major at the age of 23 at the PGA Championship at Harding Park in 2020. He followed it up with a win at The Open Championship at Royal St. George’s in 2021. He is the first player to win two majors in his debut appearance at the event. Talk about being ready for the moment.
Despite his scorching results at other major events, Morikawa has finished 44th and 18th in his two Masters appearances. That doesn’t come as a shock, however, when experience at Augusta National has proven vital to success here. Not since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 has a Masters debutant won the event. Morikawa’s irons are world-class and he’s shown patience and touch beyond his years. He is a force.
4. Viktor Hovland – Most recent Masters result: T21 (2021)
Morikawa, Hovland and Scheffler all came on the scene around the same time, and all have experienced huge success. Hovland has notched multiple wins internationally but it still searching for that signature win on U.S. soil to truly announce his presence.
The Norwegian golfer has the pristine ball-striking that Augusta National requires, but his short game leaves some room for doubt. He does overcome his chipping deficiencies to contend and win, but battle-tested short game is a must to don the Green Jacket. He may not be quite ready to seal the deal on the sport’s biggest stage.
5. Patrick Cantlay – Most recent Masters result: Missed cut (2021)
The 2021 PGA Tour player of the year, Patrick Cantlay went on a late-season tear and captured the FedEx Cup Championship to end the year with a bang. He’s a golfing robot akin to Dustin Johnson; all business on the course with a killer instinct when he gets himself into contention. And he contends quite often.
Cantlay missed the cut here in 2021 but was 17th and ninth in his previous two attempts. His game now is as strong as ever, and his excellent putting and ability to launch the golf ball long and straight will be advantages on a soggy, recently-lengthened Augusta National.
6. Cameron Smith – Most recent Masters result: T10 (2021)
The free-wheeling Aussie is coming off a wet and wild win at the Players Championship where he survived heavy rain and winds to secure the win just two months after winning the Sentry Tournament of Champions in Hawaii, firing a record-breaking -34 to fend off Jon Rahm.
Cam is the weakest driver of the top 10, but his approach game and especially his short game border on magical. The length and wetter conditions will demand everything out of Smith’s tee shots, but he is experienced at avoiding big numbers and notched a second-place finish in 2020.
7. Justin Thomas – Most recent Masters result: T21 (2021)
Many a golf tout’s darling this week, Justin Thomas is due for a big win. It’s been over a year since he won the 2021 Players Championship, and he’s been playing great golf leading into this year’s event. He’s notched top-10 results in the Tournament of Champions, Phoenix Open, Genesis Invitational and Valspar over the last four months.
The one thing missing for Thomas is close calls in the Masters. He finished 4th in 2020, but nobody was close to Dustin Johnson that year. He’s got finishes of 22nd, 17th, 12th and 21st over the last five years, so he’s sticking around but hasn’t quite knocked on the door with a chance to win. If his approach play is up to par and he has his short game dialed in, he could make some noise this time around.
8. Dustin Johnson – Most recent Masters result: Missed cut (2021)
The 2020 Masters champion is what they call the “forgotten elite” this week. He’s been quiet this year besides a ninth-place finish at the Players Championship, but a trip back to Augusta and tons of historical success could be what he needs to get back in the forefront of the world’s best.
His Masters resume is pristine, finishing 2nd, 10th, 4th and 6th before his 2020 win. He missed the cut in 2021, but I think we can give the former world number one the benefit of the doubt with how well he’s fared here in years past. The big man will benefit from other players soaking up attention this week, and he could ever-so-quietly climb right back up the leaderboard and contend with his long-driving and solid putting.
9. Rory McIlroy – Most recent Masters result: Missed cut (2021)
Rory McIlroy has been chasing the Green Jacket for nearly a decade. It’s the last major he needs to complete the majors “grand slam,” having already won the U.S. Open, Open Championship and PGA Championship. He’s had several close calls over the last decade, finishing 8th, 4th, 10th, 7th, 5th, 21st, and 5th in 2020 before missing the cut in 2021.
He won the CJ Cup in October of 2021 and he’s notched three top-20 results in his last five events. The recent form is there, the strong Masters history is there, and he hits the ball a mile. He’s my pick to win this week.
10. Xander Schauffele – Most recent Masters result: T2 (2021)
A perennial contender in big events, Xander has never gotten that big win. While he did don the gold medal at last year’s Olympics, he’s got to be eyeing a Green Jacket next. He faltered down the stretch in 2021, triple-bogeying the par-3 16th after four consecutive birdies, giving way to an Hideki Matsuyama victory.
He finished 17th in 2020 and second in 2019, so he’s shown consistent understanding of Augusta National’s unique tests. His game is in a great place, finishing top-20 or better in seven of his last nine events. The ball-striking is solid, the short game is serviceable. Watch for him to be around on Sunday afternoon.
