Can Tiger do it? Tracking Tiger Woods’ chances at a Masters comeback win

Tiger Woods, right, walks into Saturday's third round at Augusta National seven strokes back over 36 holes of golf and an outside chance of claiming his sixth Green Jacket. Photo by Joel Marklund.

Date: April 13, 2024

Saturday begins the Masters’ third round, and everybody (generally speaking, of course) loves a good comeback story. In golf, that holds true, particularly when the name Tiger Woods is involved.

There’s no shortage of golf fans — casual and die-hard alike — who’d want to witness Woods win another major, and what a story it would be if he did it at the Masters — on Augusta National’s golf course that he repeatedly has said means so much to him and his family. 

Woods has already made Masters history with making his 24th straight Masters cut after carding a 1-over 72 yesterday on a warm, windy day that he, himself called one of the trickiest golfing days of his career. 

Also in his words, the five-time Green Jacket winner currently calls the cut nothing more than a circumstance that gives him “a chance” to join Jack Nicklaus as the only six-time Masters champion in the tournament’s storied history. 

In other words, there will be time for sentimentality later. Woods is serious about wanting to win. 

But how plausible is that? In order for the hall of famer to pull another major victory this weekend at Augusta, he’ll have to smash more records and create more firsts to do it. 

AGE IS MORE THAN A NUMBER

First, is the age barrier. Jack Nicklaus is the oldest golfer to win at Augusta. He did it back in 1986 at 46 years old. Ironically, Woods is the second oldest to do it, and that happened in 2019 when he was 43. 

Woods is 48 years old now and is inching closer to that threshold where you no longer see golfers — regardless of their ilk — win majors. Phil Mickelson became the oldest golfer to win a major when he won the PGA Championship in Kiawah Island, S.C. back in 2021. He was 50 years old at the time. 

Masters champion Phil Mickelson is the oldest golfer to win a major, doing so at 50 years old. He’ll also be among the most senior statesman playing the Masters’ third round Saturday. Photo by Chloe Knott.

Ironically, Mickelson also made this year’s Masters cut and is slated to tee off for his third round at Augusta National at 11:25 a.m. Saturday with Sahith Theegala. 

An old saying says, “Father Time is undefeated.” And this is the case with any athlete in any sport, no matter how well-conditioned or skilled. With all that Woods’ body has been through, with the hilly rigor of traversing Augusta National, couple that with being less than two years from 50, and it isn’t an understatement to say that Father Time will be Woods’ stiffest competition in his question for another Masters win. 

AN INSURMOUNTABLE LEAD?

What’s the largest erased deficit for a Masters win in tournament history? You’ll have to go back to Jack Burke Jr. He came back from eight strokes down to win at 1-over par. But he did that in 1956. 

Woods will begin Saturday seven strokes back behind Friday playing partner Max Homa, Bryson DeChambeau and 2022 Masters champion Scottie Scheffler. That trio sits atop the leaderboard in a three-way tie heading into round three. So a Woods rally to win over the next two days would credit him with the second-largest comeback in Masters history. 

Homa and DeChambeau’s performances have been mild surprises given their history at Augusta and in majors in general. Scheffler is the World No. 1 and for good reason, as his skill set is arguably closer to a prime Tiger Woods than anything else in the field. However, Woods is still the drawing card, and has a body of work behind him that always gives him a shot in the minds of most golf fans. 

Still, at this stage in Woods’ career and with other young golfers playing so well, seven strokes back is a tough ask, even for a legend like Tiger. But over 36 holes, most golfing aficionados will shy away from calling it insurmountable. 

WEEKEND POSITIONING MATTERS

Based on Kyle Porter of CBS Sports’ report, the last 19 Masters winners has been a golfer that came out of the first round in the top 11. The last 12 of the last 13 Masters winners have been top 10 after the second round. 

Woods enters Saturday at T-22 with Eric Cole. So that means he’ll have to buck a near 20-year trend in order to be the last man standing Sunday evening. 

For those who love the idea of the fairy tale ending, you’ll be rooting hard for Tiger to give us one more amazing career tidbit to rave about. But conventional wisdom and two decades worth of Masters trends say it’s prudent to look for someone other than the “Big Cat” to emerge. 

However, Woods looked good through the first two days with few visible signs of physical discomfort. He drove the fairways as well as we’ve seen him do in recent years. The weather will also be to his liking. Warm on Saturday with high temps in the upper 70s, and borderline hot Sunday with sunny skies and a forecasted high temperature of 85 degrees, according to weather.com. It’s the kind of weather Woods says his body prefers. 

And most importantly? That swirling wind that has caused havoc during the first two days of competition will be diminished to a gentle-to-moderate breeze. 

The course itself continues to be in pristine condition, and Woods says it should make for some high-quality, competitive golf, not just for him, but the entire remaining field. 

“I’m right there,” Woods said after completing his second round. “I don’t think anyone is going to run off and hide right now, but it’s really bunched. The way the ball is moving on the greens, chip shots are being blown, it’s all you want in a golf course today.” 

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