The other day Tesla announced that it had built the first production car capable of going 0-60 in under two seconds. The circumstances were a bit questionable – all sorts of adhesive goo had to be put on the pavement – but even with a “normal” test, this electric car had the fastest 0-60 time yet. For car buff-readers, it was 2.07 seconds.
Something to think about if the shift to electric cars isn’t something that’s floating your boat.
And let’s be clear about one thing; electric cars are coming. Period. There’s no use in arguing about the downsides, because in another generation, we’ll be all-electric. A number of car companies that will be 200% electric in only a few years. Mercedes-Benz just issued a top-of-the-line sedan that is all electric. Companies like Benz don’t spend the billions required for developing such machines for sentimental reasons. So why is this happening? What are the pluses? And the minuses? And how do we adapt?
The last question is the one that really matters. Charles Darwin, every good Baptist’s favorite scientist, is often quoted as having written about “survival of the fittest.” If you actually read what he said, he was referring to the ability of species to adapt to change. But let’s see what we are adapting to.
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History of Electric cars
Electric machinery is not new. There were electric cars at the very dawn of the automobile age. Those submarines that played such a big role in our victory in the Pacific in World War II ran on battery-fed electric motors while underwater. Smaller battery-fed machinery has thrived on yards and golf courses across the fruited plain. In Europe, electric trains are the norm. However, oil-fed machinery carried the day for a century. It was cheap – an often-overlooked achievement of John D. Rockefeller, whose innovations led to a 90% drop in the cost of the stuff. The internal combustion engine offered many advantages. A coast-to-coast infrastructure was built in response to the popularity of the gas-powered car. A big player here was Henry Ford, whose mass-produced Model T changed the country. Two things about Ford are especially worth noting. First, he did not build his cars because consumers asked him to. He once said that if he had done what people wanted, he would have given them more horses. Second, Mrs. Ford drove an electric car! And not one of Henry’s, either.
So, the electric vehicle is not new. So why is the world turning electric now, rather than a hundred years ago? The biggest reason is that fossil fuel is losing favor. Oil has many problems. Much of it has to be moved across the world or across continents. That makes it vulnerable. In 1973-74, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) caused a crisis by closing the Persian Gulf in response to the West’s support of Israel during the 1973 war. Pipelines can deliver oil on land quickly and smoothly, but they tend to leak and occasionally blow up, and their building has become quite controversial recently.
A bigger problem with oil (let alone other fossil fuels) is environmental. Producing and refining oil is hardly a clean process. Burning the final products produces pollution and heat. While a great deal of oil is available through “fracking,” which involves setting off explosions deep underground, that process has been banned in many countries because it is increasingly seen as dangerous. Whether everybody agrees with the existence of these environmental dangers is 100% irrelevant. Most of the world, and most of the world’s scientists, see these problems as real, and want to end the consumption of fossil fuels.
Yet, going electric has its own problems. The cost of electric vehicles remains high. Batteries have all sorts of problems; their production and disposal create environmental problems, the range issues have not been resolved, and their replacement would be catastrophically expensive. Electric consumption might also strain the electric grid.
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A Silver Lining
Fortunately, these problems are not as great as they appear. The cost of electric vehicles will continue to decline. Some experts predict that the costs will be the same as gasoline vehicles in another 5-10 years. Maintenance and repair costs for electric cars are about 40% less than gas vehicles – mainly because electric motors have far fewer parts than gas engines, and – here is the part that I like the best – an electric car can operate with a transmission with far fewer forward speeds; ONE, to be precise. As far as the battery replacement cost – it’s becoming pretty clear that the battery will have to be designed to last the life of the car. Most already can.
The catch is that batteries deteriorate with age, so an old car might only have 80% of the range of a new one. Yes, range. Range anxiety is real. Had it the other day. The smarter half and I were cruising across Kansas in our brand new (gas-powered) car and passing settlement after settlement that had no gas stations. The gauge was getting lower and lower – I’m pretty much a fill-at-the-quarter kinda guy – and I was starting to feel a little range anxiety. Well, we made it. But what about the electric car? Right now, you would NEVER find a plug in Kansas to replenish it, and you’d either have to be towed in or have a rescue crew come with a generator. Which brings up another thing; you can’t refill a battery in five minutes either.
Truth is, the whole range thing exists because we’re just starting that whole mass electric car thing. People who use their cars mainly for commuting aren’t much affected because, and here’s one massive change in how we live, in daily use, we’ll “refuel” our cars at home, at night. And more and more, “electric stations” with fast chargers will start popping up, especially for travelers. Solid state batteries are being developed, which can be charged in 10 minutes. So, range anxiety makes sense now, but it won’t last forever.
This transition is not going to be painless. A lot of things have to be built or developed to make the electric car as easy to use as the ones we have now. Speaking of which, as we electrify, the value of gas cars will start to decline, as will their usability, because gas stations will begin to disappear. Electric cars might never be as cheap as gasoline cars to cheap to buy.
But there are plenty of good things. Electric cars can be tremendously powerful, because they have all their torque on tap immediately. Tesla isn’t the only company that is building fast electrics. Big vehicles that pollute the most will benefit the most; GM will soon be selling all-electric Hummers. (Yes, really.) Think of the benefits if we can electrify the truck fleet! (Unfortunately, the one company that claimed it had built an electric semi turned out to be a complete fraud, so we’ll have to wait on that one.) But electrification will be good for humanity, so that ought to generate some happiness.
Oh, by the way – before you go out and invest all your money in electric vehicles – Toyota hasn’t given up on hydrogen power yet.
Hubert van Tuyll is an occasional contributor of news analysis for The Augusta Press. Reach him at hvantuyl@augusta.edu
