From the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the phrase “herd immunity” became a touchstone, a path back to a more normal way of life.
Now, medical experts are cautioning the public that herd immunity may be unreachable.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Joe Biden’s top advisor on COVID-19, said herd immunity is elusive. Dr. Fauci said the focus should be on getting people vaccinated.
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Herd immunity is difficult to pin down because of the variables. How many people have been vaccinated? What variants exist? What variants may develop?
Dr. Phillip Coule, chief medical officer of the Augusta University Health System, agreed it is time to stop focusing on herd immunity as an endgame. It creates the belief that once the population reaches a certain point, the virus goes away.
Dr. Coule said that is not the case.
“It’s not some magic number. COVID-19 won’t go “poof” and go away,” he said.
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He also does not want to use the flu or the common cold as an analogy for COVID-19. Both are still present because both continue to mutate. So does COVID-19.
Plus, people do not usually die because of the flu. The flu is the underlying factor that results in pneumonia and sepsis, which are the true causes of death. COVID-19 is different. It is the cause of death because it attacks organs, including the brain, directly.
“The reality is the more this is in humans, the more it will mutate. The fewer people who get vaccinated, the more the virus will mutate,” added Dr. Coule.
Dr. Ioana Chirca, medical director for Infectious Diseases and Infection Prevention Program at University Hospital, said at some point the rate of vaccinations should surpass the rate of spread.
Current vaccines are effective against variants that have already emerged, but new variants will continue to emerge, Dr. Chirca said. She added that it is likely SARS-CoV2 is here to stay, much like the flu.
“Thinking that (COVID-19) will decrease in severity is not so far substantiated. We continue to see severe diseases in young patients who have not yet been vaccinated,” Dr. Chirca said.
Assistant State Epidemiologist Dr. Jane Kelly at the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control has never liked the phrase.
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“People view it as a magical number and once we get there, we’re done,” Doctor Kelly said.
She said it is a moving target, that controlling COVID-19 is based on biology, including the variants that are already emerging and are more transmittable. She said current vaccines are effective against the variants, but only if people get vaccinated.
Dr. Kelly also warned against minimizing the future of COVID-19 by comparing it to the flu or cold viruses. It is possible it eventually will not be as severe in the future, but it could also be more severe.
“This is not smallpox. It’s unlikely we’ll eliminate COVID-19,” Dr. Kelly added.
Currently, 43.2% of South Carolinians have had at least one vaccine dose, and 32.4% are fully vaccinated.
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A number of counties, including Saluda County, have low demand for vaccinations. Cherokee County and Marlboro County have the lowest vaccination rate in the Palmetto State.
“Unfortunately, no experts have a crystal ball and all we can do is give an educated opinion based on research and daily practice,” Chirca said.
Dana Lynn McIntyre is a Staff Reporter with The Augusta Press. You can reach her at dana@theaugustapress.com.
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