Research by the University of Georgia’s (UGA) Selig Center for Economic Growth indicates that the state’s financial position might prove broadly positive this year.
UGA held its annual Georgia Economic Outlook luncheon at the Marriott Convention Center, Tuesday morning, hosting a crowd of business leaders and representatives from local and regional companies—including sponsors ranging from Georgia Power and Synovus Bank to local supporters such as Blanchard and Calhoun and Piedmont Augusta.
The Selig Center, a research facility of UGA’s Terry College of Business, organizes the yearly symposium, conducted in several cities throughout the state, presenting economic forecasts for Georgia as well as for all its metro areas.
Ben Ayer, dean of the Terry College of Business, presented the center’s predictions for the U.S. and for Georgia, noting that “This year should be a positive year.”
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The center expects the country’s GDP to slow down this year, with growth at 1.6% rather than last year’s 2.5%, along with an accompanying lag in job growth. The researchers attributed this largely to the Federal Reserve’s 2022 pivot to a tighter fiscal policy to mitigate inflation.
While Georgia’s GDP is also projected to brake, it’s growth is still predicted be 2.4%, which is 0.8% higher than the national rate. Inflation, Ayer said, is expected to remain at a rate of about 3%.
The data also yielded that the odds of a recession in 2025 is roughly 25%, “a little bit higher than one in six chance that it would have in a typical year,” said Ayer. “But also a good bit lower than what we discussed last year. So the risk of recession is decreasing over time. That’s positive news.”
Fiscal policy mistakes, a shock in energy prices, a financial crisis, a stock market crash or expanding conflicts in the Middle East or Ukraine, were among the Selig Center’s list of potential recession triggers.
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Ayer stressed that the researchers were not predicting these occurrences, but had assessed them as risk factors that could provoke a recession.
He also stressed that Georgia’s economy is poised to grow faster in 2025 because of its knack for economic development.
“Other advantages include a practical mix of industries supported demographic trends of people moving to our state, excellent transportation, with logistics infrastructure, a competitive tax climate, and also a low cost of doing business and also living here,” he said.
Angie Cox, president and CEO of the Augusta Metro Chamber of Commerce, presented Augusta’s Economic Outlook for 2025, filling in for Augusta Economic Development Authority (AEDA) president Cal Wray, who was ill.
In her address, she noted that an estimated 26,411 new manufacturing jobs would be available in Richmond County by 2026, with an average salary of just over $86,000. A lot of these would be due several current and future development projects in the area, including the second phase of the Aurubis Richmond coppers smelting plant, and the groundbreaking last summer of the new Syensqo plant.
Other manufacturer development projects include the upcoming $184 million aluminum-parts factory by GF Casting Solutions, expected to bring some 350 jobs; the expansion of Standard Aero, and Generac, the Wisconsin-based backup generator producer, opening a new facility at the former Textron building on Mike Padgett Highway.
For more information visit https://www.terry.uga.edu/faculty-and-research/research-centers/selig/
Skyler Andrews is a reporter covering business for The Augusta Press. Reach him at skyler@theaugustapress.com.
