In 64 AD, Roman Emperor Nero (known as “Caesar”) paid little attention to his official duties. Although he viewed himself as both a civic and cultural leader, he spent more time composing music, singing and playing his beloved lyre (a stringed instrument resembling today’s violin or fiddle) than governing and leading his empire. Historians debate how and why a great fire broke out in Rome during his reign. Some believed it was set by rebels protesting Nero’s lack of civic responsibility; others believed it was simply a natural disaster and still others, including Nero, blamed the fire on Rome’s minority Christian community.
Nonetheless, as frantic reports came to Nero that Rome was in flames, he ignored each communique and sent each messenger away, no doubt saying something such as “Rome in flames? No way! Our aqueduct water system would douse the fire quickly. It won’t, it can’t happen here!”
But it did happen “there.” Flames raged for nearly ten days, and most of the city’s fourteen regions were destroyed. Legend says that a disbelieving Nero amused himself by playing his musical instrument while thousands died in a city reduced to ashes. Hence, today, if a person ignores his duty, especially in a crisis, we might say, “…he fiddles while Rome burns.”
Thank goodness that seventeen hundred and eleven years later, most of America’s colonial townspeople from Cambridge to Lexington, “…through every Middlesex village and farm,” believed Paul Revere when he rode through their rural towns yelling, “The British are coming! The British are coming!” If not, today we might be drinking tea and eating crumpets as opposed to coffee, bagels and cinnamon rolls. Who knows? We could also be saluting the Union Jack instead of Old Glory.
Thankfully, most of American colonists living along the route of Revere’s ride did heed the warning. Unfortunately, some people ignored the warning and failed to believe patriot Paul’s call to arms. They were, sadly, the casualties of war. Paraphrasing what they likely said as Revere’s galloping steed passed their homes, “Thanks for the warning, Paul, but I don’t believe you. It won’t happen here. It just won’t happen here!”
I guess they were fiddling while Revere road by with his warning.
Consider that the “unsinkable”… the Titanic, sunk. The “unbelievable”… creating life in a test tube, became believable. The “unthinkable”… transplanting a human heart, became very thinkable. “It won’t happen here…” always happens here.
We were in shock and disbelief when airplanes crashed into New York’s Twin Towers. We were convinced no country would ever attack the United States on its own soil. “It won’t happen here…” happened here. We also believed that there was no medical challenge or pandemic strong enough to cripple our world. COVID-19 was yet another example of “It won’t happen here…” happening here.
We’re moving faster than the speed of life. We’ve become a society that even pays to project itself into “virtual reality.” In fact, John Deere, the mammoth heavy equipment company, introduced a “virtual tractor” so that prospective customers can “test drive” farm equipment right in a John Deere showroom. Personally, I’d be concerned I would fall off the showroom couch and sustain a virtual injury.
In 1907, the Boy Scouts adopted its motto, “Be prepared!” Certainly a tagline we should all embrace, change occurs quickly, without warning and has no conscience. It affects companies (and careers) large and small. We need to embrace contingency planning. We need to be prepared in business and life. Be prepared! That says it all.
Here are a few steps you should consider while developing a contingency plan.
- List those realistic, likely and logical risks you’re facing. Know that they could happen to you and your enterprise if those risks became reality. You can’t resolve a risk without first defining the risk. That’s part of the preparation to rise above challenges.
- Weigh each risk in terms of likelihood as well as potential impact. Being prepared for the most likely of risks is vital. Analyzing impact will help you prioritize preparedness needs.
- Create a contingency plan or an “escape plan” for the most likely risks. Focus on the most dangerous first.
- Embrace contingency training and conduct contingency exercises. Remember your school days and “fire drills?” Test your responses to insure you’re experienced and prepared.
In times of dramatic change, stay focused on all the things you can control and accept. Ignore the things out of your control. Reinforce the belief that you’ll eventually find a result to a problem or rise above a challenge, even when a resolution isn’t immediately apparent. It’s also important to focus on what you’ve learned working through a challenge. Stop resisting the change and work on lessons learned.
Sadly, we buy smoke detectors after a fire. Think about what might occur and define your contingencies. As Henry Ford said, “Change is to business what oxygen is to life.”
Through it all, don’t overthink a situation. Your focus should never be on what has happened and always be focused on what needs to happen. Keep your engine in drive, move forward and realistically accept “It won’t happen here…” will, in fact, happen here.
Therefore, we must always… and in all ways be prepared!
Ira Blumenthal is a business consultant, a Georgia resident, a best-selling author, a globally renowned public speaker, a university educator and a college Lacrosse coach. Ira welcomes inquiries and can be reached at Ira@Iraspeak.com. His web site is www.IraSpeak.com
