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As a lifelong Georgia conservative, I would love to be able to embrace some dark, shadowy conspiracy theory about what led to the losses of many of our Republican candidates both in November and in the subsequent January Senate runoff.
But I can’t.
We got beat for one simple reason: There are more of them than there are of us, and they are “sticking together” as neighborhoods and voting blocs at a much higher rate.
I wish it wasn’t true.
I have heard many of the Machiavellian plots that have been both articulately explained by some and irrationally espoused by others. What I have not heard (as of this writing) is a rational summation that includes evidence-in-hand of nationwide electoral tomfoolery.
On the other hand, the evidence of “more of them than us” is overwhelming!
The reliable Republican base, particularly in our area, tends to be productive citizens who live in nice neighborhoods and pay substantial property and income tax. If you look at the neighborhood precinct totals in both Richmond and Columbia counties, the highest concentration of steady Republican votes comes from upper middle class and “high end” subdivisions and developments.
Conversely, the reliable Democrat base sees its highest concentrations of steady and active support from neighborhoods and communities that appear to be the polar opposite on the socio-economic scale. Lots of public and Section 8 housing, exclusively Title 1 schools, high crime rates, and other urban blight.
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Cases in point, the Democrats have Richmond County Precinct 104 – Eastview Community Center, and in Columbia County, the Republicans have Precinct 105 – Savannah Rapids Pavilion.
Not to belabor the issue, but the Eastview area is filled with low income and “no income” housing. While there are a few new “affordable housing” developments new to the precinct, it is loaded with very old residences in serious need of repair. The district runs from East Boundary, Laney Walker Blvd. and Gordon Highway in Augusta, all the way out to Bush Field Airport…and the city’s infamous and odorous wastewater treatment facility, known affectionately in my family as “The Doo-Doo Factory.” You would think the smell would help keep interlopers away, but they do seem to have a significant crime problem there. As such, the area has been called “the hind end of Augusta” for many, many years.
While public housing units, raw sewage treatment plants and decrepit houses don’t vote, the people who live in or near them DO. They came out over 1,600 strong in November to let their voices be heard, and they were!
The Eastview Community Center Precinct gave 92.38 percent (1540) of its vote to Democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden. The Republican incumbent Donald Trump got 6.54 percent (109).
Meanwhile, a few miles up Riverwatch Parkway in neighboring Columbia County, a much different neighborhood was going in a very different political direction. Not as much in lockstep with each other as the Eastview voters were, but a solid majority to be sure. Virtually every single voter in the Westlake subdivision is assigned to Savannah Rapids Pavilion–Precinct 105. Close to 1,000 households, I am told, and in November those residents came to the polls (just like Eastview) about 1,600 strong.
Not surprisingly, the Westlake (Precinct 105) voters went for President Trump with 72 percent (998) of their vote and gave Biden 28 percent (380). (Percentages figured independent of third-party candidates).
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These two very different neighborhoods went in very different political directions.
I gave you the “lay of the land” for the Eastview Precinct; there may be a few readers unfamiliar with the Westlake/SRP Precinct, so let me give them the skinny: Geographically it is much, much smaller than Eastview. It is a gated community, security guards posted 24/7 on either end. It is home to a beloved golf course, clubhouse, swimming pool, and championship caliber tennis courts. And about 1,000 single family homes. The median price of those homes, I am told, is around $500,000.
That is well over a half billion dollars in prime residential and commercial real estate that the Sheriff’s Department (for the most part) rarely has to worry about. While I have no way of knowing what the median income for those residents would be, I will go out on a limb and say that it is going to be substantially higher than those who routinely qualify for subsidized housing, or the free lunch program at school.
I believe we may have solved the “mystery of the unexplained votes” with some of this.
Let’s review those totals. Two voting districts as different as two neighborhoods can be, one at the top of the heap, the other close to rock bottom. Roughly 1,600 voters in each.
Eastview goes 92 percent Biden, or 1540 votes.
Westlake goes 72 percent Trump, or 998 votes.
The neighborhood filled with living definitions of success and embodiment of the American dream in progress, solidly supports the conservative.
The neighborhood that is the epitome of underachievement, crime, poverty and the failures of the welfare state even more solidly supports the liberal.
What they lack in personal prosperity and constructive behavior, they make up for in raw numbers. For the record, Richmond County in total went 67 percent for Biden. Columbia County went 62 percent for Trump. It is a hilarious footnote that Columbia County is officially more politically diverse than Richmond County. (And has been for a while!)
The enormous increase in voter participation overall (we saw between 10 percent to 15 percent higher turnout from 2016 to 2020) has come largely and exponentially from young people, and the lower class. It seems older people have always been good about voting, and the type of people who live in nice homes and in nice neighborhoods also tend to be faithful and active voters.
Underachievers, not so much. Until now.
Give Democrats credit; they knew exactly where they needed to grow their brand and they have been promising every freebie and government giveaway program possible in the process. First up…that $2,000 payoff that is gonna help way more Democrats in this area than Republicans.
My family won’t get a dime of it, but you folks enjoy! (And you’re welcome!)
The payout will assuredly assist Democrats in the quest to control American politics for the foreseeable future.
The caustic personality and audacious personal behavior of President Trump accelerated the efforts of his political enemies, and they hate him with a passion never seen in American politics in my lifetime. Combine that with the ability of social media to communicate instantly and mobilize pliable young people with time on their hands, and they have a formula for success that conservatives are going to be hard pressed to beat.
Even now I will defend the president’s official actions, and the amazing changes he advocated and achieved in his first three years. His full-throated support of “fracking” almost single handedly chased opponents into retreat, and even the bold Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris, had to eat her words on the topic.
In the wake of the ridiculous and inexcusable lawlessness at the Capitol last week, and the world’s ongoing struggles with the Wuhan Flu, it may be impossible in the short term to remember the great economy and success stories of the first three years of Trump’s administration.
The successes were large and plentiful: Lowest unemployment in generations, increasing American prosperity at all levels, withdrawal of troops from war zones and conflict abroad, the fewest new military entanglements since President Gerald Ford, and FINALLY, an American president who was willing to look foreign leaders in the face and confront them on their decades long failures to both pull their weight in our combined missions (UN, WHO, NATO), and deal with America fairly and squarely in trade.
But all that means nothing if the Republicans don’t figure out a way to tap into the Democrat’s steady and ever faithful voter base at the bottom of the economic totem pole. And that would be the biggest American political magic trick since…hmmm…Donald Trump!
Austin Rhodes is a Columnist for The Augusta Press. Reach him at Austin.rhodes@theaugustapress.com
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